Dive Brief:
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Instacart, the grocery e-commerce company that inked deals with numerous retailers this year, has pinpointed four top 2017 search trends spread over the 39 states where the company currently operates and made four 2018 predictions based on what its data team found.
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Two of the top 2017 search trends were cauliflower, with Instacart searches spiking by an incredible 1,821% during the year, and ready-made items such as deli subs (up 2,800%), deli potato salad (a 1,277% hike), chicken salad (721%) and deli fried chicken (689%).
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The other two top Instacart search trends for 2017 were wine and spirits, ranging from 735% to 800% search increases, and dairy alternatives such as Halo Top (1,168% search increase), Silk Protein plant-based milks (749%) and cashew yogurt (a 743% increase in searches).
Dive Insight:
For 2018, Instacart predicts that cauliflower — which has been substituting all year for starchier and higher-calorie veggies in faux rice, mashed potatoes, buffalo wings and hash browns — will be dethroned by the rutabaga, that relatively low-profile root vegetable that started out as a cross between cabbage and the turnip.
The company is taking this position because, as consumers focus more on healthy foods, they still want to enjoy interesting and tasty items, and the rutabaga has a savory, nutty flavor yet is still low in carbs.
Trend predictions from other companies typically focus on flavors, such as lavender or cardamon, or maybe on certain ethnic foods or on ingredient transparency, so calling out the lowly rutabaga for special recognition is a bit of a surprise. However, it's hard to argue with a company that has expanded its consumer reach from 30 markets at the beginning of 2017 to more than 150 today.
Another Instacart prediction for the new year is that grocery stores will expand their prepared foods sections and offer more low-carb, gluten-free, vegetarian and vegan options for customers who don't want to put convenience before health. This seems likely for smaller grocers in particular, who reportedly are drawing more business by offering prepared foods, niche products and good service even though they can't compete with the big guys on price or selection. At the same time, major players like Kroger and Whole Foods are expanding and diversifying their prepared foods lineups into meal kits, unique ready-made salads, and more.
For its third prognostication, Instacart says that 2018 will see a "significant spike" in beer sales, particularly in light beers such as Busch. The logic here is that the fires in California's wine country will reduce the wine supply next year and cause a hike in prices. "When the options are pay more, drink nothing, or drink something else, we’ll see many of those wine drinkers turn to beer," the company predicts.
While it's possible that beer sales will spike next year due to lower domestic wine availability, it's hard to picture consumers turning to Busch in large numbers. Anheuser-Busch InBev has been attempting to regain market share, which has slipped from 19% to 16% since 2010 — a challenge facing the big breweries as consumers flock to other alcohol varieties or craft beers with interesting flavors and clever names. In fact, overall beer consumption is down, while sales of wine and spirit sales are growing.
Instacart's fourth trend for the new year is a continuation of one we've seen for some time — increasing market share for food items without gluten, lactose, carbs, animal protein, fat and other ingredients consumers are increasingly shying away from. The company predicts that a growing number of buyers won't have certain allergies, intolerances or sensitivities; they will simply purchase these items out of a "commitment to healthy eating."
This is a prudent position since what Instacart calls the trend of "non" is a very popular one today, and ingredient intolerance is no longer the sole reason shoppers turn to allergy-free food. Many consumers are now choosing foods and beverages without allergens with the belief that they will help their digestive health, weight management and overall well-being.
Many grocers have started adding more shelf space for allergy-free products. Some devote an entire section to the category, while others use key markers to point out these CPGs throughout the store. Some stores, including Harmon’s in Salt Lake City, offer in-store help from dedicated dieticians. If a consumer learns they suffer from Celiac disease, or simply want to cut out certain allergens, they can take a tour of the store with one of these dieticians to see what products are safe for them to eat.
So, on the "free-from" prediction and the prepared foods one, Instacart seems to be on solid ground. On the beer one, it remains to be seen. As for the ascension of the rutabaga, don't bet the farm.