Dive Summary:
- Beef has only risen in price in two countries in 2012, the U.S. and New Zealand, however the price increase may not be enough to offset rising costs in feed and production.
- Although waning herds in Brazil, Argentina and Australia are starting to naturally right themselves, countries like the U.S. will begin cutting back on their beef exporting as demand takes a dip.
- In addition, rising demand for pork and poultry will exacerbate feed costs even more, a rising cost that will have to be transferred to the consumer.
From the article:
“We expect to see global supply hovering around 2012 levels, with minor ups and downs being determined by the extent to which the increase in Southern Hemisphere will outpace the reduction in Europe and the U.S.,” said Rabobank Analyst Guilherme Melo. “On the demand side of the equation, the broader picture points to another year of relatively weak consumption on the back of the still sluggish economy, as world GDP is expected to grow only slightly in 2013. The scenario is worse where production is set to decrease, such as North America and Europe, which poses additional pressure for beef companies located in these regions to pass on rising cattle prices to consumers. Additionally, as such countries rely on grains to feed their animals, they are likely to see a reduction in their competitiveness in the international market.”