States implementing restrictions on SNAP spending by the end of 2026 could see an approximately $830 million sales loss in the categories targeted by the waivers, according to newly released research from Numerator.
Redirected or reduced spending by SNAP households could lead to sales losses of $430 million for soda, $300 million for candy, and $100 million for energy drinks across the 19 states that will have waivers in place by the end of the year, according to the firm’s research. After Numerator conducted its research earlier this year, Montana became the latest state to seek a waiver request, which is expected to go into effect later this year, though the firm noted in an email this will result in a minimal increase to the $830 million estimate.
Three other states have also received waivers — two of which are expected to take effect in 2027 and one in 2028, according to the USDA.
These estimated sales hits come as roughly a third of SNAP participants will face restrictions by the end of this year, Numerator noted.
As SNAP waivers roll out across the United States, grocers in states implementing the restrictions will likely see major shifts in SNAP consumer spending in the categories targeted by the restrictions. Numerator noted that the state waivers will “structurally change” the SNAP program.
SNAP households are largely aware of the waivers, Numerator found. Among SNAP households surveyed at the start of this year, nearly two-thirds of those in states with approved waivers said they plan to use non-SNAP dollars to purchase soda if it became ineligible, while 60% and 45% said the same for candy and energy drinks, respectively.
Numerator’s research found that SNAP shoppers may opt for healthier alternatives to restricted items, with 30% of surveyed consumers saying they would possibly switch to tea, juice or coffee in the face of soda and energy restrictions. The same percentage said the same for candy, noting they would consider fruit, ice cream or fruit snacks instead.
Numerator also looked at how the government shutdown in the fall impacted SNAP spending. The firm found that average weekly grocery spending fell 10% among SNAP households, from $233 the week of Oct. 5 to $210 the week of Oct. 26. Spending then stabilized in early November before recovering during the middle of that month.
Numerator’s research is based on a survey of 1,016 SNAP households in late January and purchase data.
