Dive Brief:

• The two largest production areas for cherries in the United States are entering the harvest season with very different expectations. 
• California growers anticipate a substantial drop in output following another year of drought, an early frost, and other weather-related problems. 
• Growers in the Pacific Northwest, however, are feeling optimistic. A mild winter there and an uneventful start to spring suggests that a jump in production is possible. 

Dive Insight:

It's still too early to know for sure just how many cherries will be at the grocery store for the Fourth of July, or what folks will be expected to pay for them. If there's anything the weather has taught the produce industry in the past few years, it's that anything can happen and that a crop disaster is never far away.

Still, the numbers so far would suggest that the cherry supply for the summer of 2014 will be of reasonable size. California growers may ship only 2 million cartons this year -- well below the 8 million carton average of recent years. But growers to the north may ship more than 20 million -- well above the 14.8 million of last year.