In the agricultural-commodity trading pits, this is a tough year to be a bull. Even the most optimistic of traders and investors in corn and soybean have surrendered. It looks increasingly likely, based on the USDA's latest estimates, that this year's harvest will be huge.
That will mean low prices at the grain elevators, and a boom for processors and companies feeding meat-producing animals. And it's not just corn and soybeans where prices are moving lower.
Here's a look at what we can expect from five of the most closely watched crops as autumn nears, and how the size of the harvests will affect food processors.
Corn
Futures prices for corn have dropped by roughly a third in the past three months, as crop estimates have moved higher. The latest forecast from the USDA is that American farmers will harvest some 13.86 billion bushels of corn this year, down from last year's all-time high of 13.93 bushels, but well above historical averages.
Low prices for corn translate to cheap feed for animals. That can be very good news for poultry companies like Tyson and Pilgrim's Pride.
On the beef side, however, the size of the U.S. cattle herd is at its smallest level in history. That's pushing beef futures higher, and the prospect of cheap feed isn't doing anything to bring more animals into the supply chain, yet.
Soybean
American soybean farmers planted 84.8 million acres of soybean this spring -- dedicating more land to beans than any time in history.
Assuming that the beans grow as hoped, that will produce a record-size crop. And initial estimates from the USDA suggest exactly that: The government now forecasts a harvest of 3.8 billion bushels of soybean.
That's good news for the agricultural-trading giants known as the ABCD companies, buyers of soy meal such as ConAgra and WH Group, and buyers of soy protein such as ADM and Solae.
Wheat
Just how much wheat, and at what price, will be available to bread bakers and other processors, is a bit harder to estimate this year. Variables, particularly the weather, are keeping the futures markets in flux.
The hard red spring wheat grown in Northern prairie states is looking particularly robust this year, and record crops are possible in the Dakotas and Minnesota. But just north of the border in Canada, some local governments have declared a state of emergency following floods that caused havoc to the crop.
Meanwhile, the winter wheat harvest is already well under way, and nearing completion. Yet durum prices aren't moving lower, despite the size of the crop. That's bad news for pasta processors.
Apples
Up in Washington State, apple growers are no doubt spending a lot of time worrying about hail.
Not that hail is expected. Hail is always unexpected. And that's the problem.
Apple growers this year are forecasting the biggest apple harvest in history -- 140 million to 150 million boxes. That's well above the 128.8 million boxes seen in 2012.
In fact, the last time things looked this good was around this time in 2012 .... before hail storms hit and destroyed 15 million boxes of fruit.
If the weather holds this year, it might be good news for fresh-cut apple processors such as Crunch Pak and apple ale brewers such as SABMiller.
Rice
Rice production in the U.S. has plummeted in recent years. Only 2.5 million acres were harvested in 2013, the lowest number in more than a quarter-century.
But as corn prices have fallen, some farmers have shifted to rice production. Rice plantings in Arkansas, for example, are up 46%.
The rise in acreage is expected to push prices down, particularly for the long-grain rice that dominates plantings in the South.
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